Researchers from UC Berkeley, NYU, Stanford and the World Bank simulated a M7.25 Hayward Fault earthquake to examine how damage to hospitals and transportation systems could interact to hinder access to emergency healthcare across the San Francisco Bay Area. By analyzing 76 hospitals (426 buildings, 16,639 beds) and 5,163 bridges, the team found that simultaneous infrastructure failures could reduce available hospital bed capacity region-wide to roughly 51% — with Alameda County worst hit, retaining only about 20% (651 of 3,221) functional beds.
“Using detailed, real-world datasets on hospital and bridge infrastructure, we were able to model these compounding failure effects across the San Francisco Bay Area,” said Luis Ceferino, the study’s lead author and CEE Professor. “Our hope is that this new approach will shed light on how failures can propagate across urban systems, so that we can more effectively prioritize mitigation efforts and guide policy changes.”
The research highlights the need for regional-scale, interdependent infrastructure models to guide investments and policy for earthquake resilience. Click Here to read the full report and learn more about the recommendations from the study.
